Alexander Salnikov, co-founder of Rarible, is making waves with a bold claim: the NFT winter is thawing. Headlines overshadow the downturn with decreased trading volumes. Economic headlines trumpet the phenomenon of ‘failed NFT projects’. Salnikov insists adamantly that what we’re witnessing is a transition, not a collapse. A greater emphasis on utility, community, and value for money. Is this merely bright-eyed positive PR, or is there indeed fire below the ice? I’m Clara, and I’m here to help break down this claim, sifting through the hype and getting to the real deal.

Is Utility The Real Savior Here?

The numbers paint a grim picture. That would be a huge 93% decline in trading volume between 2021 and the first quarter of 2025. That’s a truly jaw dropping 96% drop in active traders between 2022 and Q1 2025. And let's not forget that brutal statistic: 98% of NFT projects launched in 2024 are now essentially "dead." Ouch. Events like Bybit and Kraken closing their NFT marketplaces on platforms further resonate this feeling.

Speculative assets He looks to the development of NFTs, which are increasingly becoming useful tools rather than just speculative assets. Membership passes, loyalty point systems, even the digital economy. Now, we’re witnessing the blending of NFTs into the physical world through branded merchandise, community events, and asset ownership.

Suddenly, owning an NFT sounds really cool! In exchange, you earn unique concert experiences, discounts at your favorite retailers and even a fractional piece of real-world assets—far superior to betting on its JPEG file going up in value.

Let's be real: utility alone isn't enough. Remember QR codes? They promised to transform how we communicate with each other. They should have been the interstitial space between the physical and digital, long before NFTs were even a thought. But QR codes failed to catch the public’s imagination. On the other hand, they weren’t intuitive, there was no great use case for the average person, and goodness, did they look just plain ugly. NFTs face a similar risk.

Celebrity Endorsements: The Kiss of Death?

Through the rise and fall of celebrity-backed NFT projects, we can find a cautionary tale. Justin Bieber's Bored Ape purchase, now worth a fraction of what he paid, serves as a stark reminder: fame doesn't equal value.

While celebrity buzz creates quick interest, it doesn’t ever lead to long-lasting sustainability. Salnikov is quick to point out that real creative leadership in direction played a key role. Jay thinks serious community engagement is more important than any celebrity name on a project.

This resonates deeply. If you follow these pages, you’ve witnessed many brands continue to use celebrity endorsements with decreasing ROI. The public is savvy. They can sense a money grab from a mile away. Like anything on the blockchain, an NFT project requires a captivating vision, unwavering leadership, and an engaged community to succeed.

A lesson from the dot-com boom? Throwing gobs of cash toward a marketing blitz before developing a sound product is a plan for failure. In the NFT world, that means marketing hype and brand promotion but no real value or purpose.

Regulation: The Elephant in the Metaverse

Here's the uncomfortable truth: the regulatory landscape surrounding NFTs remains murky. Are they securities? Commodities? Collectibles? The truth is, the answer greatly varies depending on the individual project and what you plan to do with it.

This uncertainty creates anxiety and stifles innovation. No investor or business is willing to dump billions of investment into a space where the ground rules are being changed every year.

In the SEC’s recent enforcement actions against NFT projects that function as or are otherwise similar to unregistered securities offerings, this risk is on full display. Though clarity from regulators is necessary for the NFT market’s long-term health, this is a double-edged sword. How do we develop a framework that does adequate investor protection without putting a damper on innovation and creativity?

This is where the “unexpected connection” starts to play a role. Consider the introduction of the early internet. There was a sort of Wild West situation, though, with the lack of regulation leading to unchecked and dangerous experimentation. Eventually regulations were created, but they tended to be reactive instead of preventative. The NFT space currently finds itself at a very similar crossroads. What we really need is for Congress to take a thoughtful and balanced approach to regulation, one that encourages innovation while ensuring consumer protections.

Here's my bold claim: NFTs could become the next battleground between traditional financial institutions and decentralized technologies. The stakes are high. The future of digital ownership and the metaverse as a whole now rests on the outcome.

As great as Salnikov’s optimism is, it’s important to be very skeptical about the NFT market. It will be slow going. In many ways the road ahead is paved with challenges, but the potential rewards are equally massive. The answer is to start with utility, community, and a clear regulatory framework. Only then can we safely say that the NFT winter is over for real. Or is this simply an early spring thaw ahead of an inevitable future freeze?