Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, is one of the most famous on-chain analysts. In short, he implies that the Bitcoin market is going through a long-term structural change. If miners weren’t still a significant force, historically cycles were quite predictable because of the dynamic at play between miners, retail investors and long established whales. With the recent launch of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs came a huge influx in liquidity from institutions that has dramatically shifted the landscape. All of these new dynamics throw previous market behaviors into doubt.

Ju, who a little while ago declared > “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over,” has since acknowledged that his call was wrong. Daily ETF volumes now average near $10 billion. This marks the dawn of an era for Bitcoin, one that is largely shaped by institutional forces.

The End of an Era: Old Market Dynamics

Historically, the Bitcoin market operated on a largely set cycle. Across the board, miners, individual investors and seasoned whales were all playing the game as the major counterparts to sophisticated player copycats. Ju describes this dynamic as a game of “Musical Chairs.” It allowed us to call tops and bottoms in the market with stunning accuracy.

"It was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak" - Ki Young Ju

With the introduction of institutional investors and even more recently of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), our market has gotten much more complicated. The laws that used to run Bitcoin cycles are out the window because of the involvement of these new participants.

Participants in the Bitcoin market are used to the market being heavily dominated by old whales and miners. New, retail investors helped make its dynamics dramatic. These communications and actions established patterns that market analysts such as Ju could analyze in order to predict future market trends.

Institutional Liquidity Reshapes the Landscape

The approval of all 11 Bitcoin spot ETF applications has introduced a fresh level of institutional liquidity to the Bitcoin market. With daily ETF volumes approaching $10 billion, the force of these institutional players is hard to overstate. This wave of institutional capital is turning the old market dynamic upside down and making traditional Bitcoin price prediction models obsolete.

This greater institutional involvement has added a new layer of variables to the equation, further complicating efforts to predict Bitcoin’s future trajectory. It is the strategic decisions of a small number of big financial institutions that could turn those traditional patterns of accumulation and distribution on their head.

As you contemplate the complexities of 2025 and beyond, you need a strong, foundational understanding of institutional liquidity. This understanding will mind-blowingly affect Bitcoin’s market moves. Investors and analysts can no longer apply old strategies without adjusting for the rapidly changing structure of the market.

Signal 365 MA: A New Tool for a New Market

To help make sense of this new market, Ki Young Ju has put out a compelling chart signaling 365 MA. This new tool is designed to help all investors get a better sense of the new dynamics at play in the Bitcoin market. The above chart compares Bitcoin’s price movements against its 365-day moving average to spot possible changes in investor sentiment.

During the last two bear markets, such as 2018 and 2022, the Bitcoin chart dropped off a cliff. What’s more, during those declines, it fell well short of the 365 MA. Historically, these dips were a clear sign of extreme bearish sentiment and promise a buying opportunity. The unique market conditions we are in, shaped by institutional liquidity, could make these historical trends more misleading than usual.

"New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi" - Ki Young Ju

The Bitcoin market today is different than it was in the past, no longer being influenced by the same drivers. After all, today’s Bitcoin market is much more pluralistic than the last decade. Factoring in traditional finance (TradFi) elements adds layers of complexity to the analysis, requiring new tools and methodologies.